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-- The Obama administration's proposed standards for fuel efficiency and tailpipe emissions will raise vehicle price tags by more than $1,000, depress sales by 58,000 and cost more than 5,000 auto industry jobs in 2012, a government analysis said Tuesday. But the plan, which sets fuel efficiency standards fleetwide at 34.1 miles per gallon by 2016 and establishes federal tailpipe emission limits for the first time, also has compelling benefits, the administration said. They include a 950 million metric ton reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; fuel savings of about $3,000 per vehicle; and conservation of 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of vehicles produced between 2012 and 2016. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson said the new standards will have the effect of taking 42 million cars off the road. The pollution and fuel efficiency standards unveiled Tuesday by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the EPA will usher in an era of smaller vehicles with less powerful engines. The regulation will cost the auto industry $60 billion over the five-year period, the administration said. Still, despite sharply higher production costs, NHTSA said the plan will eventually boost auto sales by 65,480 vehicles through 2016 and add 5,795 auto jobs because it expects stronger consumer demand for fuel-efficient models -- especially if fuel prices rise. The agency acknowledged, however, that "the possibility exists that there may be permanent sales losses" because consumers may keep vehicles longer as a result of higher prices. Lighter cars carry risksVehicle safety also may be impacted. NHTSA said automakers could make lighter cars to meet the new standards. Smaller, lighter vehicles fare poorer in collisions with larger vehicles. Under a worst-case scenario, NHTSA said the new requirements would result in an estimated 493 additional "weight-related" auto deaths from 2016 models. Under that scenario, nearly 1,100 additional people could die over the lifetime of the 2012-16 models, with about 250 of those through 2020. The fatalities would have a net societal cost of up to $15 billion. But NHTSA emphasized that automakers could improve efficiency without reducing weight and mitigate those estimates. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said "it's going to be up to the automobile manufacturers to decide the weight and how they're going to meet these standards." Proposal may softenRoland Hwang, senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, called the announcement "historic" but said automakers "could have done more and gone faster." Automakers are still likely to seek to soften the proposal, during the 60-day public comment period. The agencies will hold public hearings in Detroit and Sacramento, Calif. The plan outlined Tuesday resulted from a deal reached in May by automakers, the White House and the state of California to end years of litigation. It effectively makes California's 2004 emissions the national standard. Automakers can get credits for building advanced technology vehicles, flex fuel vehicles and other measures, which would soften the immediate impact. For example, automakers don't have to meet 35.5 mpg by 2016, because they get credits for improving air conditioning systems, which can result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Automakers won some other key points. The EPA will allow them to use flexible fuel credits through 2015 that give manufacturers a waiver for part of the requirements for building vehicles that run on E85, a blend of mostly ethanol. The measure also allows luxury automakers selling fewer than 400,000 vehicles a year to meet less stringent standards -- a move that has angered some larger automakers. "We recognize that we had to give a little bit," Jackson said. "The good news is that by 2016 we will have caught up and all autos sold in the country are going to have to meet this." NHTSA says passenger cars would average 38 mpg by the 2016 model year and light trucks would average 28.3 mpg. Auto companies face different requirements, based on the model mix and other factors. GM and Ford's passenger cars, are estimated to meet 37.3 mpg by the 2016 model year. Chrysler Group would have to average 36.8 mpg. GM's light trucks would average 26.6 mpg by 2016; Ford's trucks would average 27.3 mpg; and Chrysler's 28.5 mpg. Dave McCurdy, CEO of the Alliance for Automobile Manufacturers, a coalition of Detroit's three automakers and eight others, said the proposal "provides manufacturers with a road map for meeting significant increases for model years 2012-2016. "Final rules are essential to providing manufacturers with the certainty and lead time necessary to plan for the future and cost effectively add new technology." NHTSA and EPA must finalize the proposal by March 30 for it to take effect in the 2012 model year. [source] Add your comment:
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