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-- Auto executives and analysts are digging deep into the alphabet to find the letters to describe the kind of recovery they expect from the industry's deepest downturn in 30 years. "I think we're going to have a different recovery shape in Western Europe, central Europe and Eastern Europe," said Wayne Brannon, head of General Motors Co.'s Chevrolet brand in Europe. "A lot of people are telling me that Western Europe is turning the corner. I expect we'll have solid U-shaped growth." Many other executives and analysts expect a W-shaped recovery, referring to peaks and valleys in sales, with the Western European market rising from last year's total of 13.2 million vehicles because of generous "cash for clunkers" programs, but falling in 2010 before resuming its recovery. "In central Europe, we're bumping along the bottom, and in Eastern Europe, we still haven't found a bottom," Brannon said. "I have no prediction about how Russia will recover," he said, echoing the surprise throughout the industry at the Russian market's collapse. The U.S. auto market, expected to sink this year to its lowest level since the early 1980s, is forecast to start recovering slowly next year. John Murphy, an analyst at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, is predicting a robust sales rebound in the United States of close to 20 percent next year. "Our own forecast is for very strong growth in Asia-Pacific, a very strong recovery in North America, and then much weaker recoveries in western Europe and Japan," he said on a conference call last week. Most auto executives and analysts see further gains for the Chinese auto market. China is expected to surpass the U.S. this year to become the world's largest vehicle market. Merrill has raised its forecast for annual Chinese vehicle sales to 12 million, while most analysts expect U.S. vehicle sales to come in below 11 million. "China did OK," said Stephen Odell, CEO of Volvo Car Corp., a subsidiary of Ford Motor Co, "but Russia hit a dead stop." [source] Add your comment:
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